DAVY VIEW

EasyJet has reported a H1 FY26 headline loss before tax of £552m, in line with consensus and guidance given in April’s trading update. On a capacity increase of 8% (ASKs), RASK was up 1%, while total CASK was up 5% (including £25m additional fuel costs). Forward bookings have been impacted by the Middle East conflict with booked RASK to date -4% and forward bookings are -1ppt for Q3 and -3ppts for Q4. Ex-fuel CASK is expected to increase by low-single digits, while fuel CASK (72% hedged at $726pmt) is highly dependent on fuel price volatility which remains elevated. Given these headwinds, we expect FY26 PBT consensus to move further downwards from the current company compiled consensus level of £142m (Davy: £124.8m).