DAVY VIEW

Greggs increased Q4-25 managed shop like-for-like (LFL) sales by 2.9% (VA consensus: c.3%), noting that market conditions have remained challenging. For FY25, management expects the full-year outcome to be in line with the Board’s previous expectations; however, for FY26, it now anticipates continued consumer weakness, alongside temporary supply chain pressures, to weigh on margins and profitability. As a result, management forecasts a flat year-on-year (yoy) profit outcome relative to FY25. At first look, we envisage circa mid-single-digit percentage reductions to our current adjusted operating profit forecasts.