DAVY VIEW

The estimated provision increase for Bank of Ireland (BIRG) is larger than anticipated but remains manageable on capital. Based on our forecasts, the incremental provision (over and above our existing 2025 provision), will impact attributable profit by -10% and CET 1 by c.25bps. When incorporating other changes, we lower our forecast by 8% for FY 2025. The updated estimate removes an uncertainty, particularly regarding distribution capabilities.