DAVY VIEW

Mondi’s €565m H1 2024E EBITDA was a 12% consensus beat, principally reflecting improved packaging demand supporting price increases. The group’s €1.2bn organic expansion projects in Corrugated Packaging (containerboard and boxes) and Flexible Packaging (paper bags) are on-track to deliver €250m additional EBITDA. Confident of Mondi’s organic expansion and underlying packaging demand recovery supporting higher prices, our upgraded 2025E €1.52bn EBITDA and €1.62 EPS sit 4-6% ahead of Visible Alpha consensus.