DAVY VIEW

While Smurfit Kappa Group’s (SKG) €2.08bn 2023 EBITDA was a modest 1% consensus beat, in 2024 year-to-date (yd.), the company saw a return to +3% European box demand growth, boosting confidence in 2024 recovery. Our updated €1.97bn 2024E EBITDA sits in line with consensus. SKG’s merger with US packaging peer Westrock is on track for mid-2024 completion, with a return to US and European box growth providing a supportive environment for Smurfit Westrock’s 1) merger integration, 2) potential synergy ‘beat and raise’ and 3) financial de-leveraging.