DAVY VIEW

Ryanair’s December traffic statistics were accompanied by what it titles “OTA Pirate Update”. Although accounting for only a small fraction of Ryanair's bookings, the sudden removal of flights from Online Travel Agent (OTA) websites has reduced short-term load factors by 1% or 2% in December and January and softened short-term yields. Ryanair responded by making more low fares available directly to consumers. Ryanair does not expect this recent removal of OTA Pirate bookings to materially affect FY24 traffic (183.5m) or PAT guidance (€1.85-2.05bn). While we expect some weakness from the previously guided “mid-teens percentage” yield increase in Q3, we are unlikely to change our FY €2bn net profit estimate. However, the above commentary together will load weakness at Wizz could add to the narrative of a softening revenue environment. Our view is that the supply/demand balance remains robust.