DAVY VIEW

Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) is outperforming both box maker peers and wider packaging industry demand. With easing de-stocking and substantially easier H2 2023 comparators, as confidence builds in SKG’s return to 2024E box volume growth, we expect a H2 2023 re-rating from the current 10% discount to its longer-term valuation. While conservatively retaining unchanged SKG €2.03bn 2023E EBITDA (in-line with street), we re-affirm our ‘Outperform’ view with an increased €47 price target.