DAVY VIEW

AIB has reported a very strong H1 2023, driven by a significant beat on net interest income (NII) and resulting in a 19% beat to our profit before tax (PBT) forecast. This drives further material upgrades to FY 2023, with a 9% upside to our forecast PBT and c.8% to consensus, albeit the implied impact on H2 2023 is more limited. As expected, distributions will be considered at FY results with meaningful capacity evident. Focus on conference call will likely focus on sustainability of 2024 and 2025 NII, where we believe upside exists.