DAVY VIEW

ARYZTA’s full-year EBITDA performance was c.5% ahead of our forecast, with evidence of continued operational progress through the period under the new leadership team. Revenue momentum was underpinned by strong volume growth across all channels and price inflation recovery. Outlook calls for “further improvement” in FY23 with no specific details. We understand internal expectations are targeting 10-12% organic growth (majority pricing), with EBITDA margin held flat. On first glance, we will nudge up our FY23 EBITDA by c.3-4%. While we recognise the improvements across the business, a 9x look-through EV/EBITDA does not provide a material margin of safety.