DAVY VIEW

Revenue momentum continued through Q3 with underlying growth of +22.6%. The beat versus the street was largely volume driven, with volumes back to pre-COVID levels across most markets (capacity utilisation mid-70%). We understand new business (switching) opportunities are being presented to ARYZTA as customer concerns over competitor viability increase. Price recovery mechanisms and product innovation/renovation are helping to mitigate inflation, with pricing in April +8% versus +2.2% in Q2. Full-year revenue guidance now calls for growth of +14-16% – we see +8% upside to our FY22 revenue forecasts while holding adjusted EBITDA.