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May 21 2018, 06:55 IST/BST
Ryanair delivered record FY2018 profits at the top end of guidance – net profit of €1.45bn (Davy: €1.423bn, consensus €1.441bn) and EPS growth of 15%. The focus, inevitably, will be on guidance – net profit of €1.25-1.35bn (consensus: €1.374bn). The revenue guidance and implied ancillary growth look robust, although there are additional costs (+6% ex-fuel and +9% including fuel). However, we view this as investing now for a 200- plus customer business and assume “flat or slightly declining non-fuel unit costs” to resume thereafter. We believe Ryanair’s industry-leading competitive advantage remains and thus see no reason to change our 12-month ‘Outperform’ rating or €18 price target. We maintain our forecasts for FY2019 at €1.31bn but modestly lower our FY2020 forecasts by 5% to €1.35bn (marking to market for fuel).