Irish economy

MyHome Property Report, Q1 2018

Davy View

The Q1 MyHome report shows asking price inflation cooling modestly to 9.5% in Q1 2018, down from 10.2% in Q4 2017. This slowdown is most pronounced in the capital. Meanwhile, housing supply is finally picking up, with the number of new developments listed on MyHome up 24% on mid-2017 levels.

Asking price inflation cools in Q1 2018

Our MyHome report shows that the annual rate of asking price inflation was 9.5% in Q1 2018, down from 10.2% in Q4 2017. This slowdown was more pronounced in Dublin, with price inflation of 8.2%, down from 11.1% in the previous quarter. Outside Dublin, asking prices were still up 10%. These price movements are consistent with our forecast that Irish house price inflation will equal 8% through 2018 — split between close to 6% growth in Dublin and a double-digit gain outside the capital.

Housing supply starting to pick up

The MyHome report shows that there were 18,800 properties listed for sale in March 2018, broadly flat on the year. In Dublin, the number of properties listed for sale is up 20% on last year. Furthermore, transaction volumes in early 2018 are up over 10% — pointing to further growth in the Irish mortgage market. Finally, the number of new housing developments listed on MyHome is now 423 — up 24% since mid-2017. That said, although the current level of homebuilding is close to 12,000 units, this remains well short of natural demographic demand of at least 35,000.

Strong growth in €1m+ price bracket

Our analysis of the Property Price Register shows that there were 826 transactions exceeding €1m in 2017, up 25% from the 661 recorded in 2016. Dublin continues to account for 80% of these transactions. There are currently just over 500 properties listed for sale on MyHome with an asking price over €1m — pointing to further growth in the top end of the market in 2018.

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Apr 3 2018, 07:55 IST/BST