DAVY VIEW

We still expect a mid-single-digit gain in Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) inflation close to 3% in 2019 given movements in asking prices and fresh impetus in mortgage lending data. However, today’s June RPPI may well show annual inflation slowing, particularly in Dublin, as frothy gains in the summer of 2018 fall out of the annual comparison. Our current estimate is that residential transaction volumes were up 4% in January-July 2019, resilient in the face of Brexit uncertainty.