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Price:
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3565c
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Rating:
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Outperform
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14/06/10
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Previous:
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Neutral
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30/06/09
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FACTS: US in-store bread sales delivered growth of 2.9%.
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ANALYSIS: Artisan breads accounted for one-third of in-store bread sales in the US for the 52 weeks ended October 2011. Total in-store bread sales rose by 2.9% year-on-year. Leading the category was crusty/hot heart breads with a 39.2% share. Bread's share of the total in-store bakery category was 19.1%. In-store bread sales rose by 22.7% from 2006-2010, an annual average rate of growth of 5.2%. The data, provided by Nielsen Perishables Group, are reported by Modern Baking.
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DAVY VIEW: US in-store bakery is a channel for ARYZTA's La Brea, which other data have shown to be among the top ten brands in US bread. Historic 12-month data would suggest that bread price rises have fallen short of input cost rises. But more recent data indicate a very substantial easing of input cost pressure.
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