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Davy Macro Forecasts

Our latest forecasts for the Irish economy

Upcoming Events

UTV Media

May 17th

UTV Media - AGM - Travers Smith LLP, 10 Snow Hill, London EC1A 2AL - 10.30

UTV Media

May 17th

UTV Media - interim management statement

Premier Oil (USc)

May 17th

Premier Oil - interim management statement

Paddy Power

May 17th

Paddy Power - interim management statement

Paddy Power

May 17th

Paddy Power - AGM - The Burlington Hotel, Dublin 4 - 11.00

Macro Forecasts

  2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
Expenditure components of GNP (% change in volume)
Consumer spending -0.7 -3.2 -1.7 0.5
Government spending -3.8 -3.5 -3.2 -2.3
Investment -24.9 -14.5 -0.2 4.4
Domestic demand -4.9 -4.2 -1.7 0.4
Exports 6.3 4.5 2.8 3.3
Final demand 0.9 0.7 0.9 2.1
Imports 2.7 -0.2 1.5 2.7
GDP -0.4 1.2 0.4 1.6
Net factor payments -5.2 11.0 3.8 4.6
GNP 0.2 -0.9 -0.4 0.8
Balance of payments
Current account (% of GNP) 0.6 1.2 2.8 3.3
Inflation (% yoy, annual average)
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) -1.6 1.2 1.7 1.4
Wage inflation -3.0 -0.2 0.4 0.6
Labour market
Employment growth -4.2 -2.3 -0.4 0.9
Labour force growth -2.2 -1.4 -0.5 0.4
Unemployment rate 13.6 14.5 14.4 13.9
Public finances (€m)
General Government Balance (€m) -49.9 -15.6 -14.2 -12.9
% of GDP -32.0 -10.1 -9.0 -8.0
Last updated: January 16th 2012

Market Movements

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Top 10 Companies
Company Price Change
ARYZTA 36.86 -0.79
Bank of Ireland 0.08 0.00
CRH 13.44 -0.34
DCC 19.50 -0.15
Dragon Oil 6.35 -0.08
Elan(USc) 13.07 -0.20
Glanbia 5.85 -0.02
Kerry Group 33.43 +0.13
Paddy Power 48.25 +0.92
Ryanair 4.18 -0.22
Davy forecast changes
Adj. dil. EPS(c) 2012 2013
May 11th prev rev prev rev
Air France KLM -266 -170.7 -219 -84
Amadeus IT Holding 124.8 132.7 132.7 136.9
Buzzi Unicem 23.2 23.3 30.2 33.8
Deutsche Post DHL 131.3 135.0 144.9 151.2
easyJet (Stg) 46.2 45.8 49.3 50.4
Fyffes 6.6 7.6 6.9 7.2
Grafton Group 17.0 17.5 21.5 22.0
PostNL 61.5 60.7 51.5 51.9
United Drug 24.3 24.6 25.1 25.4