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Davy Macro Forecasts

Our latest forecasts for the Irish economy

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Bellway plc

Feb 7th

Bellway trading update

United Drug

Feb 7th

United Drug - AGM - The Shelbourne Hotel, 27 St. Stephen's Green, Dublin 2 - 12.00

ArcelorMittal (USc)

Feb 7th

ArcelorMittal FY results

Elan Corp

Feb 8th

Elan Corp FY results

CPL Resources

Feb 8th

CPL Resources - ex-dividend - interim dividend rate - 3.0c

Macro Forecasts

  2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
Expenditure components of GNP (% change in volume)
Consumer spending -0.7 -3.2 -1.7 0.5
Government spending -3.8 -3.5 -3.2 -2.3
Investment -24.9 -14.5 -0.2 4.4
Domestic demand -4.9 -4.2 -1.7 0.4
Exports 6.3 4.5 2.8 3.3
Final demand 0.9 0.7 0.9 2.1
Imports 2.7 -0.2 1.5 2.7
GDP -0.4 1.2 0.4 1.6
Net factor payments -5.2 11.0 3.8 4.6
GNP 0.2 -0.9 -0.4 0.8
Balance of payments
Current account (% of GNP) 0.6 1.2 2.8 3.3
Inflation (% yoy, annual average)
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) -1.6 1.2 1.7 1.4
Wage inflation -3.0 -0.2 0.4 0.6
Labour market
Employment growth -4.2 -2.3 -0.4 0.9
Labour force growth -2.2 -1.4 -0.5 0.4
Unemployment rate 13.6 14.5 14.4 13.9
Public finances (€m)
General Government Balance (€m) -49.9 -15.6 -14.2 -12.9
% of GDP -32.0 -10.1 -9.0 -8.0
Last updated: January 16th 2012

Market Movements

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Top 10 Companies
Company Price Change
ARYZTA 36.00 +0.35
Bank of Ireland 0.15 +0.02
CRH 15.78 +0.45
DCC 19.10 +0.29
Dragon Oil 6.21 +0.02
Elan(USc) 13.98 +0.33
Glanbia 4.91 -0.01
Kerry Group 28.36 +0.26
Paddy Power 42.73 -0.02
Ryanair 4.35 +0.09
Davy forecast changes
Adj. dil. EPS(c) 2012 2013
January 27th prev rev prev rev
ArcelorMittal (USc) 186.5 159.7 220.9 194.8
Carlsberg (dkk) 3926.7 3694.6 4410.7 4082.3
easyJet (Stg) 37.6 41.0 41.6 45.5
Salzgitter 275.9 240.1 304.0 267.6
Thyssenkrupp 99.7 69.7 158.6 120.3
Voestalpine 307.8 222.9 333.3 247.1