Davy Research

Davy Economics Monthly

UK consumer boom begins to fizzle out

DAVY VIEW

In our July issue of Davy Economics Monthly, we take a closer look at the UK consumer. Recent growth in consumer spending has not been based on income gains but on a worrying build-up in leverage and a fall in household savings. Our baseline forecast is for spending growth to slow as savings adjust upwards, but a more dramatic savings adjustment could tip the UK economy into recession – highlighting the unbalanced nature of UK GDP growth in recent years. In short, if the consumer sneezes, the wider economy catches a cold.

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