DAVY VIEW

This morning’s UK GDP data show a 0.2% contraction in Q3 and a 0.6% decline in September. The sharp decline in activity in September is in part due to the disruption around the time of the Queen’s state funeral and some partial bounce-back could occur in October. However, the data will only reinforce the view that the UK is now headed into recession. Next week will see October’s CPI inflation figures, expected to accelerate on the back of energy prices hikes but also the key fiscal plan on November 17th.