DAVY VIEW

Greencore’s Q1 was broadly in line with our forecasts and highlighted a resilient revenue outturn in the context of the mobility backdrop. Like-for-like revenues in the key Food-to-Go (FtG) category were down 22% (Davy: -21%), with the deterioration through January (-35%) reflecting the recently imposed national lockdown (a notable improvement compared to the nadir of -60% in April/May). The group recorded positive adjusted profit in the quarter, aided by cost savings and renewed use of government furlough schemes. Near-term visibility remains low, with full-year guidance on ice. In the context of the most recent lockdown, we see downside risk to our FY 2021 forecasts, though envisage no changes to FY 2022 estimates.