DAVY VIEW

The Services Output Index was down 8% in November, confirming that the second lockdown had a far smaller impact than in April/May. This means that Irish GDP probably fell by 1-1.5% in Q4 2020 versus 3.2% in Q2 2020, so GDP for the calendar year 2020 expanded by circa 3%. However, the fresh lockdown in January, with non-essential retail and construction closed and the 5km travel limit reinstated, will depress output again in early 2021.