DAVY VIEW

The National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA) funding statement indicates that it will issue €10-14bn of bonds in 2020, smaller than recent years, given buoyant cash balances and a negligible funding requirement in 2021. The NTMA expects cash balances to be run down by €8bn in 2020 to meet funding needs. However, this is based on Budget 2020’s conservative assumption that a ‘no-deal’ Brexit would lead to a €2bn exchequer borrowing requirement (EBR). We expect a €2bn surplus in 2019, expanding in 2020, helping to bolster cash balances.