DAVY VIEW

The Irish government publishes its Summer Economic Statement (SES) today, the first step in framing October’s Budget for 2020. The statement will likely show that €2.8bn of spending rises and tax cuts are available in Budget 2020 (0.9% of GDP), of which €2.2bn is already committed, but a hard Brexit will push the public finances into substantial deficit — up to 1.5% of GDP.