Market comment

Pattern of UK GDP growth points to recession risk in 2019

DAVY VIEW

At face value, the news that UK GDP grew by 0.2% does not look that bad. However, the underlying pattern points to a clear risk of recession in 2019. Business investment has now declined by 3.7%, a contraction not seen since the financial crisis. Manufacturing output has fallen for six consecutive months. Finally, the stimulus from stock-building ahead of March 29th will not last.

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Feb 12 2019, 08:25 GMT

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