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FACTS: Ryanair and IAG report January traffic statistics today; Malev stops operating.
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ANALYSIS: For Ryanair, we expect capacity take-out to be likely down high single digits to reflect the grounding of aircraft in the winter. We expect loads in the 70-71% range. For IAG, we expect low-single-digit capacity growth and flat loads of c.74%. The key factor will be premium growth, which is expected to continue to be modestly ahead of non-premium. IAG previously stated that the long-haul premium market is "stable".
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Meanwhile, Malev has stopped operating and grounded all aircraft as of 05.00 GMT. Founded in 1946, Malev operates 21 aircraft including 16 Boeing 737 next generation. The main beneficiaries should be low-cost airlines Wizz, Ryanair and easyJet. Ryanair recently opened five new routes from Budapest to Birmingham, Bologna, Bristol, Dublin and London (Stansted). easyJet flies to Berlin, Dortmund, Geneva, Gatwick, Luton, Paris CDG and Orly.
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DAVY VIEW: We expect overall capacity discipline in the low-cost market, a factor that will be illustrated by Ryanair's traffic statistics. In addition, it appears that weaker players are falling away rapidly. For the network airlines, the growth of premium traffic and whether the premium market has remained stable will be closely watched.
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