Davy Research |
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Euroconstruct
European construction volumes now expected to fall by over 2% this year with only a tepid rebound likely in 2013
15 June 2012
Flor O'Donoghue |
Barry Dixon |
Robert Gardiner |
Tim Cahill |
European construction volume decline forecast for this year increased from 0.3% to 2.1%; modest rebound expected in 2013
Euroconstruct is now forecasting that European construction volumes will decline by 2.1% this year with only a very modest 0.4% recovery in 2013. Previously, Euroconstruct had forecast a slight (-0.3%) contraction in 2012 with a 1.8% rebound in 2013.
Construction volumes are predicted to fall this year in 12 of the 19 Euroconstruct member countries. Even still, we believe the balance of risk to these forecasts is on the downside.
All end-markets forecast to contract but infrastructure worst affected; residential RMI remains resilient
Euroconstruct now expects all end-markets to contract this year. Infrastructure volumes are expected to be worst affected, now forecast to fall 4.2% (previously: -2.1%). Non-residential volumes are forecast to decline 2.7% while residential activity will fare a little better, with a fall of 0.6% now expected.
The latter is largely due to what is a relatively robust RMI sector, which is forecast to record a modest 0.3% decline.
Latest forecasts largely consistent with company expectations; outlook for lightside appears better than for heavyside
The latest Euroconstruct estimates underline that 2012 will be a difficult year for the European building materials sector, especially in infrastructure and non-residential.
In a relative context, the suggestion is that the prospects for the lightside sector (products and distribution), which is more exposed to RMI, appear to a bit better than for the heavyside (cement).